Publications

% url = {https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4397959)

With Zachary Rodriguez (link)

Abstract: In 2022, Major League Baseball changed its rules to include the designated hitter position in both the American and National Leagues. Up until that year, designated hitters were only used by American League teams. This rule change creates an environment where half of a major sports league is given a shock to offensive production. We analyze the demand for offense by investigating how the designated hitter affects attendance and offensive production for National League teams. Our results contribute to a rich literature that analyzes how offense affects fan participation, as we provide the first evidence using causal inference that offense increases fan attendance. Using a difference-in-differences framework, we show that the offense created by a designated hitter increases attendance by about 3.5-7.9% at National League home games as a result of the rule change. Given a point estimate increase in total offense of about 4.85%, we find evidence that attendance is likely elastic with respect to total offense.

With Brad R Humphreys, & Alexandre Olbrecht (link)

Abstract: Economic research on racial discrimination frequently employs data from sports. We analyze admission decisions for the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame (HOF) for evidence of discrimination against star black National Basketball Association (NBA) players from the 1950s to 2010s. Results from a Probit regression model explaining observed HOF admissions show that, holding career performance constant, star black NBA players are 1 to 2 percentage points less likely to be admitted than non-black players. The anonymous electors to the HOF appear to act on discriminatory preferences. Like the results in the NBA salary discrimination literature, this effect disappeared in the 1980s and 1990s, and reappeared after the 2000s.

With Brad R Humphreys, & Kole Reddig (link)

Abstract: Professional sports teams employ highly paid managers and coaches to train players and make tactical and strategic team decisions. A large literature analyzes the impact of manager decisions on team outcomes. Empirical analysis of manager decisions requires a quantifiable proxy variable for manager decisions. Previous research focused on manager dismissals, tenure on teams, the number of substitutions made in games, or the number of healthy players on rosters held out of games for rest, generally finding small positive impacts of manager decisions on team success. We analyze manager decisions by developing a novel measure their game-specific influence, the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) of playing-time across players on a team roster in a game. Evidence from two way fixed effects regression models explaining observed variation in National Basketball Association team winning percentage over the 1999-2000 to 2018-2019 seasons show a significant association between managers allocation of playing time and team success. A one standard deviation change in playing-time HHI that reflects a flattened distribution of player talent is associated with between one and two additional wins per season, holding the talent of players on the team roster constant. Heterogeneity exists in the impact across teams with different player talent.

With Joshua C Martin, & Zachary Rodriguez (link)

Abstract: We present evidence that Earvin “Magic” Johnson’s announcement that he contracted HIV served as a public-health catalyst for rapidly correcting the public’s understanding of who was at risk of infection. Using a novel identification strategy, we present evidence that there was a large but temporary increase in the number of AIDS diagnoses for heterosexual men following the announcement. This effect was concentrated in areas with greater prior exposure to Johnson. We show that these men were both more likely to have been diagnosed via a formal blood test and less likely to die within 1 decade of their initial diagnosis—suggesting that Johnson’s announcement caused an intertemporal substitution in testing which prolonged patients’ lifespans as a result of earlier access to medical care. We estimate that Johnson’s announcement caused approximately 800 additional heterosexual males in the United States in metropolitan statistical areas with National Basketball Association franchises men to discover their underlying AIDS diagnosis and, of whom, were more likely to live at least 1 decade beyond their initial diagnosis date.

With Brad R Humphreys, Jane E Ruseski, Brian P Soebbing, & Nicholas Watanabe (link)

Abstract: We analyze the impact of professional sporting events on local seasonal influenza mortality to develop evidence on the role played by spectator attendance at sporting events in airborne virus transmission. Results from a difference-in-differences model applied to data from a sample of US cities that gained new professional sports teams over the period 1962–2016 show that the presence of games in these cities increased local influenza mortality by between 4% and 24%, depending on the sport, relative to cities with no professional sports teams and relative to mortality in those cities before a new team arrived. Influenza mortality fell in cities with teams in some years when work stoppages occurred in sports leagues. Health policy decisions, and decisions about the subsidization of professional sports, should take into account the role played by sporting events in increasing airborne virus transmission and local influenza and coronavirus mortality.

With Robert A Lawson (link)

Abstract: This study examines the one-way truck rental prices for 378 cities. There are large price differentials in one-way rental prices between city pairs. The pull of people toward higher economic freedom locales and push away from lower economic freedom locales is found to be an important determinant of the city-pair price differentials.

With Hiroaki Funahashi, & Nicholas Masafumi Watanabe (link)

Abstract: Using weekly-level influenza case data from all 47 prefectures in Japan alongside data from Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) league from 1999 to 2018, we examine the effect of hosting games on local influenza transmission. The results highlight that during the flu season, for every NPB game held at its home ballpark, there is an average increase of 0.18 cases per sentinel medical institution (SMI) between that week and the following week. The effects are robust to different specifications and placebo tests. This translates to about a 0.1% increase in the number of cases during the overlap of NPB and flu seasons.

With Bryan C McCannon, Brad R Humphreys, & Zachary Rodriguez (link)

Abstract: Domestic violence generates long-term effects on offenders, victims, and other household members. While coercive behavior explains some family violence, aggression can also be reactive, triggered by emotional stimulus. Insight into triggers of family violence can inform policy and mitigate abusive behavior. Card, D. and G. B. Dahl. (2011). “Family Violence and Football: The Effect of Unexpected Emotional Cues on Violent Behavior,” 126 The Quarterly Journal of Economics 103–43 undertook a novel analysis of family violence triggers using unexpected losses by American professional football teams. We extend research on this trigger using data from National Basketball Association (NBA) games. Our results show that unexpected NBA losses lead to increased in-home violence. Heterogeneity analyses show that these effects are larger for weekend games, when referees are fatigued, and closer to the playoff season. (JEL J44, K42, Z22).

With Mary Becker, & Zachary McGurk (link)

Abstract: The COVID-19 Pandemic has had an unprecedented impact on how employees and employers operate. Employees, directly affected by workplace changes, may provide information regarding future efficiencies. As a result, crowdsourced employee satisfaction (ES) reviews mentioning the COVID-19 Pandemic may contain useful information regarding the future profitability of these firms. We utilize crowdsourced COVID-19 Pandemic specific ES obtained from Glassdoor.com to determine the impact on abnormal stock returns for public firms from March–December 2020. We find evidence that higher COVID-19 ES is related to higher abnormal stock returns. While non-COVID ES is found not to be related to abnormal stock returns.

With Roger D Congleton, & Alex Marsella (link)

Abstract: This paper undertakes a statistical analysis of citations and readership of papers published in the journal Constitutional Political Economy. Its focus is not the usual attempt to assess the relative impact of articles or authors but rather to suggest that readership (downloads) is a more general measure of impact and one that should be given more attention. Downloads are not simply a product of citations; nor are citations a simple product of downloads. They are distinct measures of impact. Papers and authors are evidently judged one at a time by their readers and by those who subsequently cite papers that they have read.

Working Papers

With Eduardo G. Minuci, & Candon Johnson (link)

Abstract: To address concerns with competitive balance in the NBA, the worst-performing teams in a season are compensated with a higher probability of earning a top draft pick. This system creates incentives for teams to lose on purpose, or “tank,” if they do not perceive they have a chance of making the playoffs and winning championships. We evaluate if tanking is an effective approach to improve team (on-court and financial) outcomes by examining the most explicit tanking case in the NBA: the “Trust the Process” Philadelphia 76ers. Using a synthetic control approach, we demonstrate that The Process indeed caused the 76ers to be more successful in terms of winning and operating income by the end of the sample. However, we also calculate discounted present values of the outcome measures, and only operating income had a plausibly positive present value at the time of Hinke’s hiring.

With Margaret Bock, & Brad R Humphreys (link)

Abstract: Road maintenance constitutes a significant component of public transportation spending at all levels of government. Formulation of an efficient transportation infrastructure policy requires information about factors affecting road and traffic conditions. We generate the first causal evidence that decreasing pavement quality increases vehicle crash rates and decreases average speed. Results from instrumental variable models and parallel-segment regressions using spatially and temporally disaggregated data from Federal-Aid Highway System (FAHS) roads in California show statistically and economically significant increases in vehicle crash rates and decreases in average vehicle speed caused by road damage. These impacts imply significant increases in social costs attributable to road damage.

With Mary J Becker, & Zachary McGurk (link)

Abstract: Prior research has used Glassdoor.com’s five-star rating system to measure employee satisfaction and explore its relationship to stock returns. We demonstrate how, due to a 2012 internal Glassdoor.com policy change, this crowd sourced data suffers from abnormalities that limits its usefulness. To account for these issues, we employ textual analysis via multinominal inverse regression to create monthly firm-specific satisfaction measures for public US firms from 2009-2019. We find evidence that using raw star ratings biases coefficient estimates toward zero in both cross-sectional and portfolio analyses, implying the relationship between employee satisfaction and abnormal returns may be understated in the literature.

With (link)

Abstract: Stop & Frisk, an aggressive policing tactic, was employed in New York City until a judge ruled it unconstitutional in 2013. This study uses variation in Stop & Frisk activity resulting from the ruling to estimate the tactic’s effect on property prices. Results indicate prices increased for properties most exposed to Stop & Frisk, relative to nearby properties, once the NYPD was ordered to cease Stop & Frisk activity. This increase was driven by white sellers, however, as values remained constant for nonwhite sellers. This is likely due to broken trust and divergent beliefs regarding future Stop & Frisk activity.

With (link)

Abstract: Traffic fatalities accounted for 1.3% of all deaths in the United States in 2017 and the average American lost about 100 hours due to congestion in 2019. One tool transportation departments (DOTs) use to address these issues is Dynamic Message Signs (DMS). DMS convey traffic conditions and occasional safety reminders to drivers in order to increase attentiveness and reduce harmful behavior. This study leverages variation in the text and formatting of messages displayed by Virginia’s DMS to explain detailed speed and crash data near DMS. This study reports no significant differences in crash risk nor speed when DMS display safety messages compared to default messages. However, this study does uncover large and signficant differences in crash risk and speed when DMS transition, or cycle, between multiple messages, although the effect only lasts for 3-5 kilometers. Results indicate that multi-page messages increased crashes by 1.5% in 2019, and reduced vehicle speed around DMS by 2-4%, relative to single page messages. Although DMS can provide valuable, actionable information to drivers, DOTs should be more selective in the timing and formatting of messages as to not impose additional externalities on drivers.